Woefully Ignorant Oscar Predictions: Director and Picture

I thought about squeezing in a post on best screenplays before Sunday night. But (a) it sounds like "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Departed" are emerging as clear favorites and (b) I didn't see many of the other nominees.

Of course, I didn't see some of the nominees below. Is that going to stop me from making predictions? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no!

For drama, I'll list these from longshots to favorites. With that, onto the Big Ego and the Big Enchilada.

BEST DIRECTOR

Some old faves, including a guy who people are starting to forget was an actor, given all the directing noms he gets. But there's room for foreigners, too, and I'm calling one of them in an upset. Oooh, the suspense!

Stephen Frears, “The Queen”: Um, no. About the only buzz you hear for this movie is for Helen Mirren. All other nominations seem to be riding her royal coattails. Movievangelist Odds: 15-to-1.

Clint Eastwood, “Letters from Iwo Jima”: My, they do love Dirty Harry on the other side of the camera. I heard this was good, but it's hard for me to see a movie that many didn't see and all had to read -- most dialogue is in Japanese -- result in a directing prize. Movievangelist Odds: 8-to-1.

Alejandro González Iñárritu, “Babel”: I'm hoping he wins so he can open his acceptance speech with "My name is Alejandro González Iñárritu. You killed my father. Prepare to die." Movievangelist Odds: 7-to-1.

Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”: Remind me ... has he ever won this award? Man, talk about tired storylines. I'm torn here. It would be nice to see Marty take it home, but as much as I liked "The Departed," he's done better work. Still, strong sentiment for what would be a de facto lifetime achievement award. Movievangelist Odds: 5-to-2.

Paul Greengrass, “United 93”: And here we are. More on my overall "United 93" thoughts in a minute, but it was great to see Greengrass get recognized. Between this and "Bloody Sunday," the guy can ratchet up tension without being melodramatic. Sure, it's a certain documentary style, but it works -- better when based on true events than focused on Jason Bourne. Since the movie missed in the below category, I'm giving Greengrass the edge here, even if it's wishful thinking. Movievangelist Odds: 2-to-1.

BEST PICTURE

Forget the "Dreamgirls" snub. Where are "Children of Men" and especially "United 93?" When it comes to reviews, they're right there with a couple of movies on this list and not far behind a couple of others. The "United 93" thing really gets me considering one movie in the mix, and -- sadly -- the movie I think could win it all in a competition that's more wide open than Dannielynn's paternity.

“Letters from Iwo Jima”: By all accounts excellent, but none of the momentum of "Million Dollar Baby," and probably not even considered as much as "Mystic River." (Or "Mystic Pizza," for that matter.) Movievangelist Odds: 10-to-1.

“The Queen”: If the first Queen Elizabeth couldn't win, I doubt this one can. Besides, she never liked Lady Di, and that's not cool. Movievangelist Odds: 8-to-1.

“Little Miss Sunshine”: Yay! Seeing this nomination made my day, and apparently it's gaining traction as the little movie that could. I'll cheer louder than anyone if it wins, but I have a hard time believing that a quirky comedy can triumph. (See "Sideways," "Fargo," "The Full Monty," etc.) Movievangelist Odds: 6-to-1.

“The Departed”: Like I said, not Scorsese's best, but still pretty good. If anything works against the movie, it might be length, violence and Nicholson's occasional overacting. (No!) Movievangelist Odds: 5-to-1.

"Babel": It has come to this. While I'm far from certain, I think it wins because of "Crash" last year and the lack of a clear favorite this year. Never mind the mixed reviews ... this has something for everyone, including a message! Curiously, I've seen only a little more than half of the movie as I write this, with my wife and I starting it last night. Maybe I'll love it at the end, but I suspect "Babel" joins the list of movies that win the Oscar when they may not deserve it. (I like "Capote" better and thought "Brokeback Mountain" would win last year. Not that there's anything wrong with that.) Movievangelist Odds: 4-to-1.