Sunday, February 18, 2007

Woefully Ignorant Oscar Predictions: Supporting Roles

That's right, kids, it's that time of year. What would make our third batch of Academy Awards predictions better than ever? How about a lackluster slate of movies and a forecaster who hasn't seen many of them? Hop aboard the fun bus, won't you?

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

An underwear model, an Amistad passenger and a Bad News Bear. Don't worry, though ... the favorite is a guy who played Gumby and Buckwheat.

Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”: Loved him in this. Hugely funny. Also would be great recognition for a guy who was enjoyable in other supporting roles, from "Glengarry Glen Ross" to the infamous Dr. Oatman in "Grosse Pointe Blank." ("That was meant to make me feel good.") Unfortunately, quirky-funny probably isn't enough given some of the other people up for the award. Movievangelist Odds: 15-to-1.

Jackie Earle Haley, “Little Children”: Didn't see this. (Won't be the first time I say that, sadly.) The very fact that he's still acting is noteworthy enough, and you gotta wonder if that's the real reason for Kelly Leak getting a nom. Movievangelist Odds: 20-to-1.

Djimon Hounsou, “Blood Diamond”: I liked him better when he wasn't in everything. Seriously, ever since "Amistad," he's had a lot of movies. Like the leading offender in this realm, Michael Caine, he may need a few more nominations before getting the golden boy. Movievangelist Odds: 15-to-1.

Eddie Murphy, “Dreamgirls”: My wife caught this, but I didn't. Word is the former Reggie Hammond is dynamite, and it's easy to see the Academy throwing a bone to the mass appeal guy after all these years. Especially since they jobbed him with "The Adventures of Pluto Nash." Movievangelist Odds: 3-to-1.

Mark Wahlberg, “The Departed”: To the person, every movie critic raved about Wahlberg in this movie. Was it because he had the best Boston accent? Was it because he made Damon and DiCaprio look tall? Was it because he didn't show a prosthetic penis? Beats me. I thought he was good but not amazing, especially since the role wasn't that big. Now "Boogie Nights" ... that was a performance. Still, Marky Mark has gotten enough ink that he could press Murphy for the prize. Movievangelist Odds: 5-to-1.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Otherwise known as "Cate and the Unknowns." Seriously, you could have thrown four other random names into the mix and nobody would have been more surprised.

Adriana Barraza, “Babel”: I kept meaning to see this ensemble piece but didn't. So I can't tell you who this person is, who she plays and how she was. Other than that, she's awesome. Movievangelist Odds: 12-to-1.

Cate Blanchett, “Notes on a Scandal”: Finally nominated for playing a fictional character -- I think, but don't hold me to it -- compared to Queen Elizabeth and Katharine Hepburn. Unfortunately, I worry that she and Kate Winslet are wearing out their welcomes with all the nominations. The only way Cate wins is if her performance was mind-blowing. My understanding is that it wasn't. Movievangelist Odds: 12-to-1.

Abigail Breslin, “Little Miss Sunshine”: A terrific surprise here, and I'm rooting for the chubby girl who wants only to be in a beauty pageant. I suppose she could pull off an upset, given the history of that in this category. (See Anna Paquin in "The Piano.") That's about the only reason why I've got her in second place. Movievangelist Odds: 8-to-1.

Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”: Sounds like more of a lock than Murphy, and a nice story of unknown-made-good. Sure, it's a little disconcerting to see an "American Idol" reject walk away with an Oscar a few years later. But that's better than an American Idol winner, right? And the woman apparently has some pipes, too. Movievangelist Odds: 2-to-1.

Rinko Kikuchi, “Babel”: See the firsl "Babel" nominee. However, I once knew an annoying girl named Rinku. It's not spelled the same way, but it's close enough for me to give her the advantage over her co-star. Movievangelist Odds: 10-to-1.

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