Here come the COPs: Clueless Oscar Predictions

Yes, it's very clever, in a ChiPs sort of way. (Frank Poncherello is my hero.)

So I've seen exactly one set of predictions for this Sunday's Academy Awards, and that was today in the local alt weekly -- not exactly Premiere magazine. Between that and my failure to see many of the movies included in the various categories, I can almost take pride in the sheer idiocy of the handicapping to follow. Almost. Let's warm up with some appetizers today before getting to the bigger dogs Thursday and Friday.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There": I hear she plays some version of Bob Dylan, apparently because she's already played pretty much any female role ever invented, from Queen Elizabeth I to Katharine Hepburn to Galadriel. Since she's been nominated a bunch of times before and won at least once -- right? -- I'm thinking she misses out this year. ODDS: 12-to-1.

Ruby Dee, "American Gangster": She plays Denzel's mom, right? Prime candidate for a lifetime achievement deal here, especially since the field is somewhat wide open. ODDS: 4-to-1.

Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement": Another young nominee, but really no chance, even in the category that often delivers surprises. And really, who's going to want to say her first name more than once? ("Soar-see? ... Say-or-see? ... Sayonara? ... ") ODDS: 20-to-1.

Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone": She supposedly crushed this role, playing some kind of fierce b*tch. I also like her in "The Wire" on HBO. Not sure that will get her beyond "It's an honor just to be nominated ... " ODDS: 10-to-1.

Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton": The only movie on this list that I've seen, and Swinton was rather nasty if unsure and unbalanced. Then again, I think she gets more props and passes from critics than she deserves. We'll see what wins out Sunday. ODDS: 6-to-1.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford": I know he didn't play Jesse James. Was he Robert Ford? Either way, this is kind of cool. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Benny's brother get an acting nom before he did? (Yes, we all know "Daredevil" was robbed.) No matter, as Casey likely will get a pat on the head but no statue. ODDS: 20-to-1.

Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men": Loved this role, loved this guy. Bardem has always been a critic's darling, and bad guys always seem to make good supporting actor nominees. Hard to see his airgun-toting a$$ get denied here. ODDS: 2-to-1.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War:" Big fan of Phil, and each nomination makes up for him being overlooked in "Along Came Polly." ("Raindrops!") Still, probably not enough juice here after he won recently for "Capote." ODDS: 12-to-1.

Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild": Heck, I thought this movie was just about Emile Hirsch hanging out in the woods. There were other actors? Besides bears and stuff? In any case, while there's the lifetime achievement factor here, it's not enough to beat Bardem. ODDS: 10-to-1.

Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton": Wow ... remember when he was the boss in "The Full Monty?" Seems like he's been in a million movies since then. I actually thought he was the best one in "Michael Clayton" as the lawyer who went off the deep end, but not so much that he wasn't dangerous to the bad guys. Another year, he could win. ODDS: 9-to-1.