Oscar odds: Best Supporting Actress

In New York on business for a couple of days, and let me just say it's great to be back. Last night in the bar next to my hotel, this rather festive woman did the following:
1. Exposed her breasts to a friend taking a picture.
2. Let her husband/boyfriend/random grunt stick his hand down the back of her pants, then hold his fingers under her nose.
3. Exposed her breasts again while draping an arm around the bartender's shoulders for another photo.
4. Straddled her fella on the barstool, then bounced up and down yelling, "Go, Seabiscuit!"

All this before "Werewolves of London" started playing on the jukebox. Awroooo!

With the Oscars less than a week away, let's get rolling on some relatively uninformed picks, based on the below odds:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator": I gotta say, she was really annoying in this movie. Then again, everyone felt that way about the real Katherine Hepburn. ODDS: 3-to-1.
Laura Linney, "Kinsey": The hair changes color, but the performance stays the same. And what the neighbors must have said about Mrs. Kinsey ... ODDS: 8-to-1.
Virginia Madsen, "Sideways": What a cutie ... loved her since "Fire with Fire," and REALLY loved her in "The Hot Spot." My heart says she's a lock, but let's be realistic. ODDS: 15-to-1.
Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda:" The Keisha Castle-Hughes Honorary Nomination. You can check out anytime you want, but you can never leave ... ODDS: 15-to-1.
Natalie Portman, "Closer": Our little Queen Amidala is all growns up. The Golden Globes win removed her longshot status, and folks may remember "Beautiful Girls" as well. ODDS: 6-to-1.